Trump Mirage … (TWTW – Mar 6-10, 2017)

Trump Mirage … – “Don’t be allured by the Trump mirage of 3 to 4 % growth and the magical benefits of tax cuts and deregulation”…

I think what Bill Gross meant is fooled, or lured by … Either way, in his latest Investment Outlook, former bond king Gross sees the risk of interest rates wreaking havoc on an increasingly stressed financial system … Going on to suggest that: “But our highly levered financial system is like a truckload of nitro glycerin on a bumpy road”.

Need I say this doesn’t exactly sound … great? Probably not…

Latest Developments

  • Energy – Massive deal for Canadian Natural Resources – Bulking up on Oil Sands Assets via purchase of $8.5 Billion worth of Shell assets. Canadian Oil cos increasingly Oil sands dependent going forward … European ones – retreating and taking writedowns to move on to what they see as greener pastures… Between them, CNQ and Suncor, now make up close to 47% (!) of XEG (the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy ETF).
  • March 9th – Saw the current Bull Market enter its 9th year. Happy Birthday
  • March 8th – Was International Women’s Day
  • Oil Prices – Succombed to selling pressure as inventories remain stubbornly high …
  • March 14/15 – next FOMC meeting at which Friday’s payroll numbers suggest a hike is pretty much a foregone conclusion…
  • February US NP Data – So was it good enough? Or were market participants having second thoughts? Initially markets reacted well … and then … second thoughts?
  • Bitcoin – Mini-crash post SEC rejecting ETF application …
  • Trumpy – And Finally – I miss David Letterman … But what is with the beard ??? => Click HERE!

Latest market numbers as seen through the ETFs providing exposure to the most commonly referred to benchmarks:

ticker name change ticker name change ticker name change
XIU S&P/TSX 60 -0.49% PXG RAFI Global Fundamental -0.41% VCN FTSE Canada All Cap Index ETF -0.69%
XIC S&P/TSX Capped Composite -0.57% PXS RAFI US Fundamental Index -0.86% VCE FTSE Canada Index ETF -0.48%
CRQ RAFI CDN Fundamental -1.35% QQC/F NASDAQ 100 CAD Hedged 0.24% VUN CRSP US Total Market Index Unhedged -0.02%
XSP S&P 500 CAD Hedged -0.37% PZC RAFI CDN Small-Mid Fundam -2.39% VSP S&P 500 CAD Hedged -0.38%
XUS S&P500 0.28% VXC FTSE All-World Ex Canada Index ETF 0.27%
XMU MSCI Min Vol US 0.16% XXM/b Morningstar US Value (Unh) -2.63% VEF FTSE Developed ex North-Am CAD H 0.34%
CLU RAFI US Fund 1000 CAD H -0.87% YXM/b Morningstar US Momentum (Unh) -1.48% VDU FTSE Developed ex North-America 0.65%
XSU Russell 2000 CAD Hedged -1.98% FXM Morningstar CDN Value -0.75% VE FTSE Developed Europe 0.68%
XIN MSCI EAFE CAD Hedged 0.39% WXM Morningstar CDN Momentum -1.12% VA FTSE Developed Asia Pacific 0.64%
XEH MSCI Europe IMI CAD H 0.17% VXM/b Morningstar Intl Value (Unh) 0.92% VEE FTSE Emerging Mkts -0.26%
XEC MSCI EM IMI 0.00% ZXM/b Morningstar Intl Momentum (Unh) 0.58% HAZ Active Global Dividends 0.29%
XMM MSCI Min Vol Emerging 0.20% RWE MSCI Europe Low Risk Weighted (H) -0.04% HHF Morningstar Hedge Fund Index -0.71%
CWO RAFI Broad Emerging -1.87% HMF Auspice Managed Futures -1.34%
CJP RAFI Fundam Japan CAD H 0.35% ZDJ Dow Jones CAD Hedged -0.33% HAC Seasonal Rotation -0.43%
CDZ CDN Div Aristocrats 0.30% ZEQ MSCI Europe High Quality CAD H 0.16% HPR Active Preferred Shares 1.41%
week of: Mar 6-10, 2017 Source: ETFinsight/Bloomberg

 

Weekly Volumes for the week of Mar 6-10, 2017:

weekly volume data:
Total Volume non-leveraged $5,830,139,652
top 10 Volume non leveraged $2,562,903,962
Total Volume leveraged $2,043,008,813
top 5 Volume leveraged $1,444,154,480
Total Volumes overall: $7,873,148,465
Top 10 + Top 5: $4,007,058,442
top 10 non leveraged % of total nl: 44.0%
top 5 leveraged % of total leveraged 70.7%
Top 10 + Top 5 as % of total traded: 50.9%

Recent Volumes history:

volumes week ending Mar 10, 2017

iShares – Turnill: The Next Election Shock?

Vanguard – Clear Perspective on bond market liquidity => Click HERE! (most relevant insight here? Liquidity is Dynamic, and high quality assets consistently find a market clearing price). 

Horizons – Thackray’s latest Market Letter => Click HERE!

PowerShares – S&P’s Lazzara and Wurzback in discussion with Chris Doll on “Can investors have strong dividend income with less volatility? and latest product introduction => Click HERE! You guessed it: Low Vol High Div ETFs!

First Asset – Value versus Momentum: sharper value decline in the US relative to Momentum; not far apart in Canada, both negative, but Value slightly less so, while on the international front, both value and momentum gain modestly, value come out slightly ahead …

Other – FP: Dividend ETFs drive growth in Smart Beta sector => Click HERE!

Top and Bottom performing ETFs for the week of Mar 6 – 10, 2017:

Ticker Name % Change Avg Price Weekly Volume $ Volume traded
Top Performers week of Mar 6-10, 2017
GAS CN Equity Canadian Natural Gas Index Etf 7.77% $8.90 18,512 $161,292
HNY CN Equity Horizons Natural Gas Yield ETF 3.93% $13.72 40,960 $564,260
FHB CN Equity First Asset European Bank ETF 2.23% $8.06 49,618 $401,526
FSF CN Equity First Asset Global Financial Sector ETF 2.22% $18.65 5,929 $110,193
RPF CN Equity RBC Canadian Preferred Share ETF 1.56% $23.24 804,299 $18,659,798
PR CN Equity Lysander-Slater Preferred Share ActivETF 1.53% $10.50 128,884 $1,351,166
PPS CN Equity PowerShares Canadian Preferred Share Index ETF 1.49% $16.18 136,268 $2,204,188
ZPR CN Equity BMO Laddered Preferred Share Index ETF 1.42% $11.30 13,347,602 $150,922,555
HXX CN Equity Horizons Euro Stoxx 50 R Index Etf 1.42% $27.44 40,800 $1,120,003
HPR CN Equity Horizons Active Preferred Share ETF 1.41% $9.24 3,763,280 $34,773,017
Bottom Performers
XBZ CN Equity iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF -3.23% $13.91 66,342 $928,071
HEE CN Equity Horizons Enhanced Income Energy ETF -3.25% $13.97 60,538 $846,755
OXF CN Equity First Asset Can-Energy Covered Call ETF -3.75% $11.00 15,692 $172,627
SVR CN Equity iShares Silver Bullion ETF -4.92% $9.66 162,654 $1,571,872
HUZ CN Equity Horizons Silver ETF -5.49% $9.89 910,964 $9,184,151
XBM CN Equity iShares S&P/TSX Global Base Metals Index ETF -6.10% $11.99 1,837,019 $21,588,787
ZJO CN Equity BMO Junior Oil Index ETF -6.27% $15.60 85,894 $1,315,407
ZMT CN Equity BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Global Base Metals Hedged to CAD Index ETF -7.17% $9.96 5,964,362 $57,528,023
HUC CN Equity Horizons Crude Oil ETF -7.53% $12.01 253,476 $3,042,311
CCX CN Equity Auspice Canadian Crude Oil Index ETF -11.99% $8.35 84,277 $683,868

Top Performing ETFs – Aside from a – dare I say a likely weather related nat gas bounce, Financials and prefs dominated last week, presumably on account of continued rate hike expectations … Will the FED deliver this week?

Bottom Performing ETFs – Nat Gas bounce notwithstanding, Oil and Gas ETFs succumbed victim to the pullback of crude prices, while Gold and Silver presumably weakened on account of not enjoying the prospect of higher rates …

Last week’s Sector Performance:

sector week ending Mar 10, 2017

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