Feds Creds (TWTW – Mar 13-17, 2017)

Feds Creds – Annnnd the FED unsurprisingly hiked Fed Funds by 25 bps this past week. What seems to be the most significant shift in general sentiment, is that now, market participants are actually believing the FED when it comes to the “program”. By the program, we are talking about 3 hikes in 2017. This psychological shift is significant, in that for quite an extended period time now, markets have basically not bought into lot of what the FED has been talking about – most specifically in relation to “normalization”…

And … meantime, elections in the Netherland saw the right wing fail to gain the traction it was looking for – good news!

Latest Developments:

  • BREXIT – HM Queen Elizabeth II has signed Brexit into Law
  • MSCI – reviews the implications of BREXIT => Click HERE!
  • More Actively Managed ETFs – Purpose’s REDWOOD wholly-owned Sub launches active ETFs on NEO => Click HERE!
  • Deutsche Bank –  still reeling from MBS / Great Recession related wounds … issuing $8.6 Billion at 35% discount… (ouch for existing shareholders…)
  • Oil – the bullish “thesis” appears to be revisited, as bullish bets are cut back according to Bloomberg (specs long shrinking… with price still under pressure and under $50…+ Shale producers have already managed to hedge a lot for quite some time going forward = not exposed to whims of whether OPEC wants to cause price to drop again or not…)

Latest market numbers as seen through the ETFs providing exposure to the most commonly referred to benchmarks:

ticker name change ticker name change ticker name change
XIU S&P/TSX 60 -0.31% PXG RAFI Global Fundamental 0.77% VCN FTSE Canada All Cap Index ETF -0.03%
XIC S&P/TSX Capped Composite -0.05% PXS RAFI US Fundamental Index -0.25% VCE FTSE Canada Index ETF -0.15%
CRQ RAFI CDN Fundamental 0.46% QQC/F NASDAQ 100 CAD Hedged 0.47% VUN CRSP US Total Market Index Unhedged -0.47%
XSP S&P 500 CAD Hedged 0.26% PZC RAFI CDN Small-Mid Fundam 1.80% VSP S&P 500 CAD Hedged 0.29%
XUS S&P500 -0.68% VXC FTSE All-World Ex Canada Index ETF 0.42%
XMU MSCI Min Vol US 0.07% XXM/b Morningstar US Value (Unh) 0.00% VEF FTSE Developed ex North-Am CAD H 0.55%
CLU RAFI US Fund 1000 CAD H 0.45% YXM/b Morningstar US Momentum (Unh) 0.44% VDU FTSE Developed ex North-America 1.04%
XSU Russell 2000 CAD Hedged 1.92% FXM Morningstar CDN Value 1.16% VE FTSE Developed Europe 1.39%
XIN MSCI EAFE CAD Hedged 0.65% WXM Morningstar CDN Momentum 0.93% VA FTSE Developed Asia Pacific 1.01%
XEH MSCI Europe IMI CAD H 1.17% VXM/b Morningstar Intl Value (Unh) 1.54% VEE FTSE Emerging Mkts 2.78%
XEC MSCI EM IMI 3.11% ZXM/b Morningstar Intl Momentum (Unh) 1.07% HAZ Active Global Dividends 0.19%
XMM MSCI Min Vol Emerging 2.72% RWE MSCI Europe Low Risk Weighted (H) 1.15% HHF Morningstar Hedge Fund Index -0.14%
CWO RAFI Broad Emerging 2.56% HMF Auspice Managed Futures -1.04%
CJP RAFI Fundam Japan CAD H -1.52% ZDJ Dow Jones CAD Hedged 0.06% HAC Seasonal Rotation 0.11%
CDZ CDN Div Aristocrats 0.19% ZEQ MSCI Europe High Quality CAD H 1.05% HPR Active Preferred Shares 0.21%
week of: Mar 13-17, 2017 Source: ETFinsight/Bloomberg

Weekly Volumes for the week of Mar 13-17, 2017:

weekly volume data:
Total Volume non-leveraged $5,686,613,847
top 10 Volume non leveraged $2,697,657,107
Total Volume leveraged $1,995,980,670
top 5 Volume leveraged $1,412,135,948
Total Volumes overall: $7,682,594,517
Top 10 + Top 5: $4,109,793,055
top 10 non leveraged % of total nl: 47.4%
top 5 leveraged % of total leveraged 70.7%
Top 10 + Top 5 as % of total traded: 53.5%

Recent Volumes history:

volumes week ending Mar 17, 2017

iShares – Boivin: “Why markets may be wrong about Europe” – We believe markets appear too pessimistic on Europe’s outlook—a big reason why we are positive on European stocks. Jean explains.

Vanguard – Wang: China: “Balancing the risks of its Rebalancing”

Horizons – Noble: “Rising Momentum in the Passive Approach: Click HERE”.

First Asset – Momentum a tad ahead in the US (positive sign, still of favorable market backdrop?), respectively otherwise behind value in both Canada and on the International front.

Other:

Mid-March 2017 Flows – onward and upward: Thru $122 Billion => Read more: click HERE!

Top and Bottom performing ETFs for the week of Mar 13-17, 2017:

Ticker Name % Change Avg Price Weekly Volume $ Volume traded
Top Performers week of Mar 13-17, 2017
XBM CN Equity iShares S&P/TSX Global Base Metals Index ETF 4.36% $11.97 565,975 $6,697,042
ZJG CN Equity BMO Junior Gold Index ETF 4.19% $8.71 1,355,440 $11,870,197
ZMT CN Equity BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Global Base Metals Hedged to CAD Index ETF 3.91% $9.91 842,423 $8,235,612
ZGD CN Equity BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Global Gold Index ETF 3.22% $10.19 53,834 $547,468
XCH CN Equity iShares China Index ETF 3.16% $24.90 62,136 $1,556,513
XEM CN Equity iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF 3.15% $29.13 306,157 $8,959,371
XEC CN Equity iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index ETF 3.11% $24.59 335,817 $8,255,257
ZLE CN Equity BMO Low Volatilty Emerging Markets Equity ETF 3.05% $21.28 25,892 $551,721
ZEM CN Equity BMO MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF 2.98% $18.14 404,829 $7,354,098
VEE CN Equity Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap Index ETF 2.78% $31.79 607,096 $19,332,327
Bottom Performers
ZUH CN Equity BMO Equal Weight US Health Care Hedged to CAD Index ETF -0.80% $43.92 154,763 $6,789,890
DLR CN Equity Horizons US Dollar Currency ETF -0.86% $13.32 1,968,513 $26,241,119
ZWB CN Equity BMO Covered Call Canadian Banks ETF -1.04% $19.09 2,643,743 $50,565,633
ZEB CN Equity BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Banks Index ETF -1.10% $28.20 9,203,799 $260,379,422
HNY CN Equity Horizons Natural Gas Yield ETF -1.14% $13.88 50,482 $697,204
CJP CN Equity iShares Japan Fundamental Index ETF CAD-Hedged -1.52% $14.42 438,765 $6,362,709
ZUB CN Equity BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged to CAD Index ETF -1.66% $27.00 2,096,131 $56,707,620
HUN CN Equity Horizons Natural Gas ETF -1.91% $6.72 34,651 $233,562
ZBK CN Equity BMO Equal Weight US Banks Index ETF -2.64% $25.45 1,015,175 $25,926,272
HUV CN Equity BetaPro S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETF -7.00% $5.80 87,938 $511,443

Top Performing ETFs – Whaaat? The FED hikes, and … EM leads on the week? Could it be a significant psychological shift is / has been underway for a while? One would have to think so … Beyond this, Materials = Reflation trade still alive?

Bottom Performing ETFs – Nat Gas still pulling back some … Banks – they oh, beneficiary of reflation trade, let’s now forget: “some selling on news (FED Hike)? … and Volatility = still non-existent … = for the moment, still in a TINA (there is no alternative) investment world… (how much longer?)

Last week’s Sector Performance:

sectors week ending march 17, 2017

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